Trading

In 2020 I started trading crypto. In mid-2023 I moved into forex, and in early 2024 I added equities. I have run two styles side by side the whole time: holding positions I believe in for the long horizon, and swing trading around the shorter moves. I am not going to publish numbers here — this is not a finance site and I am not selling a method.

What I keep from it is not a market opinion. It is a habit of thinking in position sizes instead of certainties. A trader who is right sixty percent of the time and sizes badly still loses; an engineer who is confident about an estimate and wrong about the tail risk sinks a project the same way. Trading taught me to ask what happens when I am wrong before asking how likely it is that I am right — and that question has changed how I scope work far more than any framework has.

It also taught me to sit still. Most days the correct action is none, and the discipline of not acting transfers almost directly to architecture: the cheapest system is the one you did not build because you waited a week and the requirement evaporated.

Anything about markets, method or risk goes to this address.